1887

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

English, French

Modelling Manufacturing Export Volumes Equations

A System Estimation Approach

International trade is a principle transmission mechanism by which developments in one country can have repercussions in others and how it is modelled is an important part of any multi-country model. This paper describes recent estimation work carried out by the OECD, which respecifies and updates the equations which determine manufactures export volumes in the OECD INTERLINK model. An important feature of this estimation work is that the relevant equations are estimated as a consistent system, allowing data acceptable parameter restrictions to be imposed across countries. For a number of countries and regions allowance is also made for the possible influence of supply-side factors on market share performance over and above that explained by changes in price competitiveness, using non-linear trend variables. The paper reports both estimation results and the simulation properties of the equations both in isolation and as part of corresponding country models and the fully linked ...

English

Keywords: forecasting and simulation, trade, exports
JEL: F47: International Economics / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; F17: International Economics / Trade / Trade: Forecasting and Simulation; C22: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Single Equation Models; Single Variables / Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; C23: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Single Equation Models; Single Variables / Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models; C20: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Single Equation Models; Single Variables / Single Equation Models; Single Variables: General
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