Strategic Instincts: The Adaptive Advantages of Cognitive Biases in International Politics

Dominic D. P. Johnson

Published by Princeton University Press 2020

Strategic Instincts

The Adaptive Advantages of Cognitive Biases in International Politics

Dominic D. P. Johnson

Volume 171 in the series Princeton Studies in International History and Politics

https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691185606

Overview
Contents

About this book

How cognitive biases can guide good decision making in politics and international relations

A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases—quirks of the brain we all share as human beings—are detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. In Strategic Instincts, Dominic Johnson challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, he considers the ways that cognitive biases act as “strategic instincts,” lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information.

Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, Johnson looks at three influential cognitive biases—overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. He then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. He acknowledges the dark side of biases—when confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, Johnson makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance.

Strategic Instincts suggests that an evolutionary perspective offers the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics.

Author / Editor information

Dominic D. P. Johnson is the Alistair Buchan Professor of International Relations at St Antony's College, University of Oxford. He is the author of God Is Watching You and Overconfidence and War and the coauthor of Failing to Win.

Reviews

"Dominic Johnson has written a very timely book. Relying on psychology and evolutionary biology, he draws a far more realistic picture of human decision making than rational choice theory allows. It is high time that adaptive intuition take its rightful place alongside logic and calculation."—Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America

"A thoughtful, almost forensic, examination of significant historical examples demonstrating an idea that became clear to us in the Irish Peace Process—those who operate contrary to the laws of rational, responsible behavior often succeed better than those who do. This is evolutionary research at its challenging best, with profound implications for international relations."—John Alderdice, University of Oxford

"This excellent book argues that common psychological biases, generally decried as responsible for errors and misfortune, are evolutionarily derived and, on balance, advantageous. Strategic Instincts is original and important."—Robert Jervis, Columbia University

Topics

Frontmatter Publicly Available Download PDF	i
Contents Publicly Available Download PDF	vii
Acknowledgments Publicly Available Download PDF	ix
Introduction. Our Gift Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	1
Chapter 1. Adaptive Biases: Making the Right Mistakes in International Politics Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	12
Chapter 2. The Evolution of an Idea: Politics in the Age of Biology Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	29
Chapter 3. Fortune Favors the Bold: The Strategic Advantages of Overconfidence Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	48
Chapter 4. The Lion and the Mouse: Overconfidence and the American Revolution Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	85
Chapter 5. Hedging Bets: The Strategic Advantages of Attribution Error Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	115
Chapter 6. Know Your Enemy: Britain and the Appeasement of Hitler Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	145
Chapter 7. United We Stand: The Strategic Advantages of Group Bias Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	174
Chapter 8. No Mercy: The Pacific Campaign of World War II Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	209
Chapter 9. Overkill: The Limits of Adaptive Biases Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	242
Chapter 10. Guardian Angels: The Strategic Advantages of Cognitive Biases Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	267
Notes Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	293
Index Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	353
A Note on the Type Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	377