Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling

Joshua M. Epstein

Published by Princeton University Press 2007

Generative Social Science

Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling

Joshua M. Epstein

Volume 21 in the series Princeton Studies in Complexity

https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400842872

Overview
Contents

About this book

Agent-based computational modeling is changing the face of social science. In Generative Social Science, Joshua Epstein argues that this powerful, novel technique permits the social sciences to meet a fundamentally new standard of explanation, in which one "grows" the phenomenon of interest in an artificial society of interacting agents: heterogeneous, boundedly rational actors, represented as mathematical or software objects. After elaborating this notion of generative explanation in a pair of overarching foundational chapters, Epstein illustrates it with examples chosen from such far-flung fields as archaeology, civil conflict, the evolution of norms, epidemiology, retirement economics, spatial games, and organizational adaptation. In elegant chapter preludes, he explains how these widely diverse modeling studies support his sweeping case for generative explanation.

This book represents a powerful consolidation of Epstein's interdisciplinary research activities in the decade since the publication of his and Robert Axtell's landmark volume, Growing Artificial Societies. Beautifully illustrated, Generative Social Science includes a CD that contains animated movies of core model runs, and programs allowing users to easily change assumptions and explore models, making it an invaluable text for courses in modeling at all levels.

Author / Editor information

Joshua M. Epstein is a Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, a founding member of the Brookings-Johns Hopkins Center on Social and Economic Dynamics, and a member of the External Faculty of the Santa Fe Institute. He is the coauthor of Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up and the author of Nonlinear Dynamics, Mathematical Biology, and Social Science.

Reviews

Epstein's generative manifesto is essential reading for anyone seriously interested in explaining social life.---Michael Macy, American Journal of Sociology

It should be noted that having all these contributions in one place is not only useful but pleasing...Epstein's book is a concise and well articulated defense of agent-based modeling. Generative Social Science is essential reading for anyone seriously interested in the foundations and the practice of agent-based modeling.---Daniel Diermeier, Science

"This book is leading what is likely to be an increasingly important line of thought. The central argument and its illustrative applications present conceptual and methodological innovations that clearly have enormous potential. The writing is concise, accurate, balanced, and entertaining. Readers will be broadened, challenged, provoked, and inspired."—John Steinbruner, University of Maryland

"Generative Social Science is an important book that should be read by all who have a serious interest in the social sciences."—Peter Hedström, University of Oxford

"Agent-based computational modeling represents an important new interdisciplinary approach to doing social science. Joshua Epstein, a pioneer of this approach, provides in Generative Social Science both a spirited defense of agent-based modeling and a dazzling display of the method's power."—John Duffy, University of Pittsburgh

Epstein's Generative Social Science . . . is to be regarded as a success. It is a highly professional book, comestible also by non-experts without giving up scientific rigour. Probably because the author is fond of its subject matter, and manages to transfer his enthusiasm into the reader, the book may be read all at once, as a narrative. . . . In sum, there are good reasons to expect that the community of simulators will welcome this book with enthusiasm, and that other supporters will be recruited.---Rosaria Conte, JASSS

"Joshua Epstein has been a leader in articulating and pursuing the agent-based generative approach to social science. This collection of his papers exemplifies both the depth of his methodological positions and the fruitfulness of agent-based analysis. The power of simple rules of local social interaction in generating explanations of complex social behavior is beautifully illustrated, most notably in the study of population fluctuations in Anasazi societies. I am convinced that agent-based approaches to economics will become a major tool."—Kenneth J. Arrow, Stanford University

"Epstein is a central and outstandingly creative figure in the emerging social science literature developed through agent-based simulation studies. Epstein offers an undogmatic, balanced account of his project and methods and shows in what specific ways they can open up whole broad questions that are simply unapproachable with traditional methods. The chapters address a stunningly wide range of problems, and each chapter has a distinctive and stimulating contribution to make."—Duncan K. Foley, New School for Social Research

"The contents are important, and until now have appeared in scattered and sometimes obscure places. The new commentary that the author has added ties these together in a coherent whole illustrating this new approach to the social sciences."—Brian Skyrms, University of California, Irvine

"Generative Social Science is an outstanding example of an exciting paradigm shift in the analysis of dynamic social systems. Joshua Epstein is a virtuoso at using simple models to reveal surprising insights about the dynamics of a wide range of phenomena such as epidemics, status hierarchies, civil violence, and even the timing of retirement."—Robert Axelrod, University of Michigan

Topics

Frontmatter Publicly Available Download PDF	i
CONTENTS Publicly Available Download PDF	vii
INTRODUCTION Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	xi
Prelude to Chapter 1. THE GENERATIVIST MANIFESTO Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	1
Chapter 1. AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL MODELS AND GENERATIVE SOCIAL SCIENCE Joshua M. Epstein Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	4
Prelude to Chapter 2. CONFESSION OF A WANDERING BARK Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	47
Chapter 2. REMARKS ON THE FOUNDATIONS OF AGENT-BASED GENERATIVE SOCIAL SCIENCE Joshua M. Epstein Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	50
Prelude to Chapter 3. EQUILIBRIUM, EXPLANATION, AND GAUSS’S TOMBSTONE Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	72
Chapter 3. NON-EXPLANATORY EQUILIBRIA: AN EXTREMELY SIMPLE GAME WITH (MOSTLY) UNATTAINABLE FIXED POINTS Joshua M. Epstein and Ross A. Hammond Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	75
Appendix to Chapter 3. LARGE EFFECT OF A SUBTLE RULE CHANGE Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	86
Prelude to Chapters 4–6. GENERATING CIVILIZATIONS: THE 1050 PROJECT AND THE ARTIFICIAL ANASAZI MODEL Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	88
Chapter 4. UNDERSTANDING ANASAZI CULTURE CHANGE THROUGH AGENT-BASED MODELING Jeffrey S. Dean, George J. Gumerman, Joshua M. Epstein, Robert L. Axtell, Alan C. Swedlund, Miles T. Parker and Stephen Mccarroll Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	90
Chapter 5. POPULATION GROWTH AND COLLAPSE IN A MULTIAGENT MODEL OF THE KAYENTA ANASAZI IN LONG HOUSE VALLEY Robert L. Axtell, Joshua M. Epstein, Jeffrey S. Dean, George J. Gumerman, Alan C. Swedlund, Jason Harburger, Shubha Chakravarty, Ross Hammond, Jon Parker and Miles Parker Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	117
Chapter 6. THE EVOLUTION OF SOCIAL BEHAVIOR IN THE PREHISTORIC AMERICAN SOUTHWEST George J. Gumerman, Alan C. Swedlund, Jeffrey S. Dean and Joshua M. Epstein Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	130
Prelude to Chapter 7. GENERATING PATTERNS IN THE TIMING OF RETIREMENT Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	144
Chapter 7. COORDINATION IN TRANSIENT SOCIAL NETWORKS: AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL MODEL OF THE TIMING OF RETIREMENT Robert L. Axtell and Joshua M. Epstein Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	146
Prelude to Chapter 8. GENERATING CLASSES WITHOUT CONQUEST Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	175
Chapter 8. THE EMERGENCE OF CLASSES IN A MULTI-AGENT BARGAINING MODEL Robert L. Axtell, Joshua M. Epstein and H. Peyton Young Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	177
Prelude to Chapter 9. GENERATING ZONES OF COOPERATION IN THE PRISONER’S DILEMMA GAME Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	196
Chapter 9. ZONES OF COOPERATION IN DEMOGRAPHIC PRISONER’S DILEMMA Joshua M. Epstein Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	199
Appendix to Chapter 9. GENERATING NORM MAPS IN THE DEMOGRAPHIC COORDINATION GAME Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	222
Prelude to Chapter 10. GENERATING THOUGHTLESS CONFORMITY TO NORMS Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	225
Chapter 10. LEARNING TO BE THOUGHTLESS: SOCIAL NORMS AND INDIVIDUAL COMPUTATION Joshua M. Epstein Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	228
Prelude to Chapter 11. GENERATING PATTERNS OF SPONTANEOUS CIVIL VIOLENCE Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	245
Chapter 11. MODELING CIVIL VIOLENCE: AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH Joshua M. Epstein Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	247
Prelude to Chapter 12. GENERATING EPIDEMIC DYNAMICS Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	271
Chapter 12. TOWARD A CONTAINMENT STRATEGY FOR SMALLPOX BIOTERROR: AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH Joshua M. Epstein, Derek A. T. Cummings, Shubha Chakravarty, Ramesh M. Singha and Donald S. Burke Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	277
Prelude to Chapter 13. GENERATING OPTIMAL ORGANIZATIONS Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	307
Chapter 13. GROWING ADAPTIVE ORGANIZATIONS: AN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH Joshua M. Epstein Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	309
CODA Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	345
INDEX Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	349

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