Chinese Statecraft in a Changing World

This book addresses one of the most pressing geopolitical inquiries of our era: how will China's ambition manifest on the global stage? To address this question, the book considers China’s long tradition of statecraft. By doing this, it provides a unique and novel insight into the “why” behind China’s actions and sparks a crucial dialogue on “how” to best navigate China’s global rise.  

 Through a keen analytical lens, the book illuminates both the constraints and the flexibility inherent in Chinese policy-making. It underscores the geographic and historical factors that constrain China's actions, forcing its leaders into trade-offs. It also highlights the system's inherent flexibility, expanding the range of strategic options available when dealing with China. The most unique contribution consists in framing the pre-occupations of contemporary China in the context of both long-standing Chinese trends and unprecedented global changes.

This book offers a nuanced and realistic guide for senior policy makers, business leaders, academic researchers, and global citizens who seek to decipher the enigma of China's ascent and channel its trajectory towards a more positive and responsible direction.

“For a world seeking to deal with the ‘China Challenge’, Jean Dong’s book makes an outstanding contribution towards an informed and balanced understanding of today’s China. It is written to serve as a tool for ‘sense-making, not persuasion’. Jean seeks not to ask the reader to accept China’s political system or values, nor make predictions regarding China’s future actions, but rather, to better understand how geography and the depths of thousands of years of civilisation very materially shape much of the culture, priorities and actions of contemporary China. The results of Jean’s extraordinarily extensive research are fascinating, compelling and scholarly. This book removes ignorance and fosters respect.” (Andrew Robb, Australian Minister for Trade and Investment, 2013–2016)


“There is no more crucial question in contemporary international relations than China: the imperatives of its statecraft, its motivations and goals. Too many analyses are ideologically motivated. Jean Dong is a welcome, refreshing and important exception. She offers clear, balanced and realistic insights into China’s global role amidst changes in the international environment of an unprecedented speed and scope. Her work will be invaluable to academics and practitioners alike as they struggle to understand a China that often puzzles but can never be ignored.” (Bilahari Kausikan, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore, 2010–2013)


“Jean Dong has contributed to the growing literature on elite Chinese politics and economics with an ambitious and intriguing focus on placing contemporary events in the context of ancient and long-standing Chinese trends and traditions. She has succeeded in this while at the same time acknowledging the extent of the ideological shift now under way—one that she suggests may well outlast Xi Jinping—that includes elevating security as a priority. For Xi both vaunts China’s ‘rejuvenation’, incorporating all that has made the country great in past eras, while also seeking to stress as he did at the 20th National Communist Party Congress that ‘there is no end to theoretical innovation’.”
(Rowan Callick, Australian Expert and Author on China; Former China Correspondent for The Australian and The Australian Financial Review)


“In an era of ‘polycrisis’, the ‘China threat’ theory and the ‘China collapse’ theory are like two sides of the same coin, flipping in turn, which to a large extent not only affects public opinion, but even dominates the policy orientation of many countries. Against this background, the author adopts the analytical framework of ‘Dynamic Constraints Analysis’, which integrates long-term historical perspective, broad geographical relationship, complex policy making process and detailed data, and provides a basis for understanding contemporary China and its policy formation process. This novel perspective is important to help avoid misdirection in strategic options driven by the ‘politics of fear’ in addressing the China challenge. This is a timely, inspiring, rare and excellent book.” (Wang Hui, Professor of Literature and History, Tsinghua University; Author of The Rise of Modern Chinese Thought)


“The use of the ideas of dynamics and constraints makes sense to a historian. I imagine international relations experts will find them useful too.” (Wang Gungwu, University Professor, National University of Singapore)


“This excellent book addresses one of the critical geopolitical questions of our age. Is China’s ambition to replace the United States as the dominant power or will it be content to sit as an equal partner on the global stage, and how would the relationship evolve without catastrophic conflict? It provides great insights into the internal systems and thinking of the Chinese leadership both in a historical and current context.” (Malcolm Broomhead, Chairman of Orica; Non-Executive Director of BHP Group, 2010–2022)


“Jean Dong’s book offers fundamentally important insights into why China does what it does. Her wide-ranging narrative covers historical and current trends, as well as external and domestic influences. At a time of great global uncertainty, with China at the epicentre, this is an invaluable and necessary contribution. While it is right to focus on China’s growing strength and assertiveness, it is China’s insecurity and vulnerabilities, she notes, that pose a greater risk. And, as she further writes, miscalculations and misjudgements from the West in their interactions with China can lead to undesirable results. This is an essential message to those who present China in one-dimensional and simplistic terms, and should be absorbed by policy makers, strategic analysts and, indeed, the general public, as they seek to comprehend what is one of the world’s greatest challenges.” (Colin Heseltine, Australian Ambassador to the Republic of Korea, 2001–2005; Deputy Head of Mission in the Australian Embassy in Beijing, 1982–1985 and 1988–1992)


“This book is worthy of great attention. The author shows deep knowledge and understanding of both China and the Western world, making this book an excellent go-between. Articulating the country’s long history with appreciation for today’s major global challenges, it offers a realistic analysis of what China truly looks like, and how it’s likely to react in different scenarios. This book is critical reading for anyone looking to brush off the noise of polarised arguments, and engage in serious sense-making about China’s deep-rooted past and flexible futures.” (Zhao Tingyang, Professor of Philosophy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Author of All Under Heaven: The Tianxia System for a Possible World Order)


“As a development economist it is impossible for me to have anything but deep respect for China’s epochal achievement in reducing poverty and raising the living standard of a large part of humanity. I have long and hard tried to understand it and found in Jean Dong’s profoundly serious book an invaluable guide and source of insights. You do not have to be a China expert, nor do you have to agree with all of Jean’s scholarly interpretations to recognize the commitment, wisdom and balance that define her work. As a world citizen, I must add: we are living in dangerous times, and Jean’s book—if carefully studied by those charting the course of nations—will surely make us safer.” (Uri Dadush, Research Professor, University of Maryland; Non-Resident Fellow, Bruegel)


“In a dispassionate, balanced, and scholarly contribution, Jean Dong has provided us with an excellent means through which to tackle the challenge of understanding China. Those who study international affairs—and particularly those who shape them—should study this text carefully. If we are to avoid the tragic miscalculations of the past, a clearer understanding of China is absolutely essential. ” (Lindsay Tanner, Australian Minister for Finance 2007–2010)


“Here is a book, written in Australia, that gives real depth to public debate. It suggests how geography influences the thinking of a nation and then discusses the key institutions, ideas and priorities that make China distinctive. Writing beautifully for the general reader, Jean shows how present-day China emerges from its past–reminding us time and again that a great deal of understanding, together with a certain calmness, can be gained from historical insights. Few issues matter more for Australia than assessing China’s future, especially its foreign policy intentions. Not everyone will be convinced by Jean’s views–but all will agree that the book should be essential reading.” (Anthony Milner, Professorial Fellow, University of Melbourne; Former Basham Professor of Asian History, Australian National University)

Jean Dong is a Chinese-Australian business and policy advisor specializing in bilateral and multilateral strategic and economic collaboration. From 2015 to 2019, leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative, she advised on and facilitated high-profile Sino-Australian delegations, as well as business partnerships across sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture, technology, energy, and mining. In 2014, Jean orchestrated a landmark agricultural cooperation agreement between Tasmania and Shaanxi Province. The signing of this agreement was witnessed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott. 

Since 2016, Jean served as a task force member of the G20 think tank engagement group (T20). Jean played an active role in shaping policy recommendations for G20 leaders on issues such as World Trade Organization reform, fiscal policy in response to the pandemic, and the future direction of multilateralism reforms. Jean is currently Research Fellow with the Centre for Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of Melbourne.